GEOANALYSIS
July 2017 – Did Globalization reduce the inequalities between countries ?
Globalization of economy is very often presented as a source of inequalities. Everywhere in the world, the populous speech relies on this affirmation. Since the appearance of the globalization, poor people would be poorer and rich people would be richer. Reducing inequality would therefore rely on a closure of the frontiers and a return to national otarky. But, what is it exactly ? (...)
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Since the early 2000s, oil prices have influenced exchange rates, irrespective of changes in European and US interest rates. Until the end of the last century, European currencies were insensitive to crude oil prices. But since the early 2000s, the euro has evolved roughly in the same direction as black gold, while the dollar varies in the opposite direction. When the price of oil increases, the dollar weakens against the Euro. On the contrary, a weak barrel strengthens the dollar and weakens the Euro. The reason is simple. A high oil price corresponds to both high demand and high growth, which creates an influx of dollars both in oil- producing countries and in emerging countries that export more. Reinvested in Euros since the (...) Read More >
The main oil and gas producing countries, both OPEC and non-OPEC, met on April 17, 2016 in Doha to try to stabilize oil production and sustain crude oil prices, which are held back by an excess in supply and a deceleration of the growth of the demand. However, the renewed tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran has compromised the conclusion of a binding agreement to freeze the production. Before the first oil crisis in 1973 and its "car-free Sundays", nobody really talked about oil prices. Historically, prices were fixed by consumer countries and despite an increase in demand of 6% per year during the 1960s, the price per barrel remained constant at US$2. During the golden sixties, major OECD countries (...) Read More >
Independent since 1768, but stuck between the two emerging superpowers (China & India) without any mineral resources or access to the sea, Nepal is one of the poorest countries in the world. Most of its population lives below the poverty line with less than 2€/day. Access to energy (gas and oil), which is entirely dependent on the goodwill of the "Great Indian Brother" has become a particularly acute problem for the new government of Oli Sharman whose policy is not fully aligned ... with the vision of the Indian authorities. Under the sacred and classical "defense of Indian minorities", India has put Nepal under oil and gas embargo. The result is a humanitarian crisis. Power shutdowns, lack of heating and long queues at (...) Read More >
Caught between China to the north and India to the south, Nepal is known to the public only as "top of the world". Passionate of mountains forever, I have recently made a trek that led me to the Annapurna Base Camp (ABC). Located at 4130 m altitude, it is the only place from where you can admire the sunrise on this majestic peak of 8091 m that the French climber Maurice Herzog was the first to win on 3 June 1950. Resulting in the tectonic collision between Indian rigid plate (which was part of Africa hundred million years ago and left Madagascar on the way) and Eurasia plate some 10 million years ago, Himalaya is by far the highest mountain range in the world. It has 14 peaks over 8000 meters (...) Read More >
The technically recoverable reserves would be comprised between 700 and 1000 TCF (120 and 180 Gboe) with 600 TCF (100Gboe) in the Sichuan Basin and 210 TCF(36Gboe) in the Tarim Basin. However, the geology of these shale gas resources is considerably less favorable than in the US : most Chinese shale basins are structurally and tectonically complex with numerous faults some of which are seismically active. The southwestern quadrant of the Sichuan Basin would be the most promising play: more favorable geology, water resources, existing pipelines and access to major urban mark(...) Read More >
June 2015 – L’immaturité historique des chancelleries occidentales face à la montée de l’intégrisme islamique
Je ne suis pas un grand admirateur de Charlie Hebdo. Ses excès iconographiques qui versent trop souvent dans la provocation et la surenchère sont rarement à la hauteur des messages qu’ils sont sensés délivrer. Pourtant, au nom de la liberté d’écrire, de dessiner, de penser et de croire, « j’étais Charlie » comme plus de trois millions de Français le 11 janvier 2015. Cette liberté de conscience est l’un des plus importants acquis de la Révolution française. Elle s’appelle « laïcité » et se définit comme la « conception et l’organisation de la société fondée sur la séparation de l’Église et de l’État et qui exclut toute religion de l’exercice du pouvoir politique ou administratif et en particulier de l’organisation (...) Read More >
The European baby boomers had two strokes of luck: that of having grown up in a society of growth and plentiful employment and above all, that of having lived in a time of peace. The European Union may have its faults but it does have the virtue of having preserved the “old continent” from any conflict for almost 70 years, a first in history. For fifteen centuries, the Europe of Nations that certain demagogues are trying to reinvent tore itself apart at the slightest opportunity, leaving in its wake violence, ravages and desolation. Yet this generous European Union, invented by Jean Monnet and Robert Schumann, nurtured by Paul Henri Spaak and Konrad Adenauer, progressively consolidated first in (...) Read More >
Over the last few years, the shale oil and gas revolution has generated an almost exponential growth in US pro- ductions. In six years, the US has lowered its oil dependence by over 20% and has almost regained its self-sufficiency in gas. According to the EIA, this growth could expand. It is believed that the US is to start exporting LNG as of 2017, while continuing to considerably lower its oil dependence. It is expected to import only 15% of its oil from the Middle East around the 2030 time horizon (compared with 75% in 2000) and could export 25% of the world’s LNG capacity. This unexpected influx has imposed a “double punish- ment” on pro(...) Read More >
